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Will US efforts to deescalate the Israel-Hamas conflict be effective? Experts weigh in_我的网站

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一 | 今天是传统二十四节气中的大雪，大雪，顾名思义，雪量大。古人云：“大者，盛也，至此而雪盛也”。

二 | Following Hamas' attack on Israel, the United States has sent a clear message of deterrence to prevent the conflict from spreading.To "anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation," President Joe Biden said during an address on Tuesday, "I have one word: Don't."The rhetoric has since been repeated by others in the administration, with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan telling reporters that they believe militia groups across the region "pose an urgent threat" and could "choose to try to exploit" the situation.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next."We have been sending clear warnings that doing so will result in a firm response and consequences from the United States," Sullivan said Tuesday.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday there's a "long list of actors in the region that are hostile to Israel," including Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group.The administration has also offered its full support to Israel, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin telling reporters in Brussels on Thursday that the U.S. is not placing conditions on the military aid it's providing to Israel. The U.S. additionally moved a carrier strike group into the eastern Mediterranean as part of its deterrence measures."We're sending a loud and clear message: The United States is ready to take action should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to escalate or widen this war," Kirby said Wednesday.How impactful those gestures will be on the raging war remains uncertain. The U.S. has limited leverage in the region, though does need to be careful to not further escalate the conflict, foreign policy experts said. The Biden administration is also likely keen to not get heavily involved, experts said."If Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or some other militant group from a neighboring country decides to get involved and attack Israel at this time, I don't think the United States is going to do anything more than it's currently doing -- which is offering Israel whatever it needs to defend itself," Ralph Carter, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.Biden has historically been "cautious" in sending U.S. troops into battle, Carter said. "His experience in Washington over 40 years or more suggests that once you start something like that, you have no idea where it's going to end."Kirby said Thursday that there are no active plans or intentions to send U.S. troops to join a potential ground war in Israel and Gaza. The U.S. has deployed its largest carrier group, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region as an act of deterrence, officials said."The United States has moved military assets in the region, but I really do find it doubtful that the Biden administration really wants to get heavily involved militarily," Russell Lucas, a professor of international relations and global studies at Michigan State University, told ABC News.Israel's powerful military is also capable of defending itself against Hamas and other militant groups, experts noted, which may limit what it needs from the U.S. and act as another deterrent."The requirements on the U.S. defense industry I think are maybe not as heavy as they might be if we were talking about a weaker ally," Adria Lawrence, the Aronson Associate Professor of International Studies and Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, said during a public briefing on the conflict.In recent days there have been some limited military engagements on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, though Hezbollah may be deterred from getting drawn into a larger conflict with Israel, experts said."They will pay dearly for entering the conflict," Lucas said. "I think most actors [in the region] know that at the end of the day, the most military-capable actor is Israel, so there is a deterrence factor."Given Israel's known military prowess, the Biden administration's rhetoric may be stronger than necessary, Lucas said."I think it's more the Biden administration is aiming especially at the domestic audience -- trying to reassert that kind of bully pulpit of the commander-in-chief role, especially in the face of perhaps critiques from the Republican Party that Biden isn't strong enough," he said.At the same time, the U.S. does need to be careful about making any threats, experts said."Words matter and if President Biden's making a commitment and making kind of an implicit threat, he needs to remember the risks that are inherent in making a red line," Lucas said. "President Obama's red line in Syria -- do not use chemical weapons -- that was then not followed up was viewed as one of Obama's biggest foreign policy failures."Sarah Parkinson, the Aronson Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Studies at JHU, said during the university's briefing that these comments by U.S. officials "will likely embolden extremists on both sides" and prolong the conflict.Following Biden's remarks, Hezbollah said they will not back down and are "ready for confrontation," while the top leader of the Islamist armed organization Houthis in Yemen said that if the U.S. intervenes militarily in Gaza, they will send munitions and fighters to support Hamas.In efforts to deescalate the conflict, the U.S. could help mobilize other countries in the region, according to James Steinberg, the dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at JHU and former Deputy Secretary of State during the Obama administration."It's not that the United States itself is going to broker a resolution of this, but it can engage others, all of whom have a stake in not seeing the situation escalate," Steinberg said during the university's briefing, noting the discussions that have been taking place between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others.Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Israel that they are working with their partners in the region to ensure "that there will not be a second front or a third front."Steinberg said a wider war "can't be ruled out," and the effectiveness of the U.S.' response to deescalate is "uncertain" -- likening it to its support of Israel in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War."Here as then, the United States has limited impact and limited leverage," he said. "Perhaps even less so today than it did in 1973."。到了这个时段，雪往往下得大、范围也广，故名大雪。这时我国大部分地区的最低温度都降到了0℃或以下。大雪往往在强冷空气前沿冷暖空气交锋的地区，会降大雪，甚至暴雪。

三 | 可见，大雪节气是表示这一时期，降大雪的起始时间和雪量程度，它和小雪、雨水、谷雨等节气一样，都是直接反映降水的节气。二十四节气是指二十四时节和气候。二十四节气是中国古代订立的一种用来指导农事的补充历法，是古代劳动人民长期经验的积累和智慧的结晶，形成于春秋战国时期。二十四节气分别为：立春、雨水、惊蛰、春分、清明、谷雨、立夏、小满、芒种、夏至、小暑、大暑、立秋、处暑、白露、秋分、寒露、霜降、立冬、小雪、大雪、冬至、小寒、大寒在易经预测中，年月的界限都以节气为准。每个月有两个节气，前边的叫节，后边的叫气。每个阴历年都是从立春这天开始，到下一个立春结束。两个阴历年之间以立春为界，以此为标准。每年阴历第一个月叫寅月，也是从立春开始，到惊蛰结束，中间夹了个雨水。寅月中的节就是立春，气即为雨水。每个月都有一节一气。

四 | 每个月都从节开始，到下一个节结束。例如：2018年农历正月初一这一天是民间所认为的新年开始，实际不是。2018狗年的开始应该以立春来区分。2018戊戌狗年的立春是在公历（阳历）的2月4日，农历2017年的腊月十九（12月19）的卯时，从这一时刻起，已经进入了农历戊戌狗年，也就是人们常说的年前打春。立春：就是春季的开始。雨水：降雨开始，雨量渐增。惊蛰：惊蛰是指春雷乍动，惊醒了蛰伏在土中冬眠的动物。春分：春分表示昼夜平分。